The Reality Check

The Obama Campaign for re-election in 2012 has already begun. The Obama Campaign began the day Obama got elected. It's not just Obama, it's just the way presidential politics works. The first term of any presidency is all about getting re-elected. Presidents only care about their legacy in their second term, when they no longer have an incentive for re-election.

President Obama himself began to set expectations low for his first term. There are two strategic implications for that. If Obama doesn't come through with all the promise and hope he inspired the nation with during the election, he can say "I told you so", and explain that it's difficult to turn a situation around, especially the economy recovery, in just one term. Then President Obama will say that he needs another term to not cut short what he started so that it will actually work.

Secondly, if the economy does turn around, Obama will overdeliver on his promises, and wow the nation by exceeding his own low expectations. But every political economist knows, the President has little to do with the economy. Studies have shown, the President has little to do with the successes of the US economy, and they are little to blame when things go sour. Yes, the Bush Administration could have done a lot to mitigate what happened int he Mortgage Securities industry that brought our economy to it's knees. However, at the time, he has little political capital and almost no political will in himself, the Congress, nor the nation to do anything about it at the time.

So the Obama Campaign of 2012 is hedging it's bet early on by setting expectations low.

The Obama Campaign 2012 Strategy

Strategy #1 - Pleasing The Liberal Base Not The Masses
Most Americans are moderates. If you look at the liberal-conservative spectrum, a wide majority of Americans are in the middle somewhere. But the ones who control the government and politics in this country are not. So who are the power brokers of American Presidential Politics? Is it the moderates? Is it the centrists? No, it's the people on the out extremes of the spectrum. They are the ones who are passionate for their views. They are the ones who will donate the money. They are the ones who will go door to door to hand out literature. They are the ones who will pull strings to help you get elected. Right now, the Obama Campaign 2012 cares mostly about this group - which for Obama is the liberal base. When election time rolls around, they are the ones Obama will count on to donate the money, man the get-out-the-vote phones, and get the other pro-Obama moderates (those who say they will vote for Obama but may never actually make it to the polls) out to the polls to vote for him. The liberial base is also the ones who will endorse Obama and tell everyone how great he is when election time rolls around. It's the leaders of ACLU, NAACP, NARAL and others who will not only publically support him to their members, but will use their resources to push a pro Obama campaign.

President Obama is acting super liberal right now, and maybe he is. His critics are slamming him for running as a moderate. Well, that's how you get elected. Watch for President Obama to move back to the center as the next Presidential elections approach.

President Obama cares little about approval ratings among the masses right now. The Obama Campaign knows that the masses have a short term memory, while the liberal base has a very long memory. President Obama knows that approval ratings can change on a dime and that the only approval rating that really matters is the one that comes out the day of the election. Of course, it becomes more important as it approaches election day, but as of now, President Obama is using his still pretty good approval rating and his stock pile of political capital to quickly push forward very liberal bills, like the Freedom of Choice Act and Healthcare Reform. Why? Because he's quickly trying to get the liberal base in his back pocket for the next elections. When election time rolls around, NARAL will remember that Obama pushed forward FOCA and reward him for it. Also, in 2012, most people, even the pro-life ones, will forget that FOCA ever happened.

Strategy #2 - Keep Michelle Obama In The Kitchen
It's freakin' ridiculous. Michelle Obama graduated from freakin' Princeton and then from freakin' Harvard Law School. What the heck is she doing prancing around just looking pretty and doing empty public relations crap and pretty much staying out of her husband's way. Check out the latest news about the First Lady Michelle Obama from the Chicago Tribune - First Lady Michelle Obama's hair: Was that a bob or not? Or check this crap out from ABC News - Designer Alert: Michelle Obama Celebrates More Than a Great Outfit.

Everyone expected she would be a different kind of First Lady because she's so educated, brilliant and successful in her own right. What happened? Well, the Obama Campaign for 2012 happened. They don't want her to steal her husband's spotlight or do anything of significance that could cause Barack to be viewed as weak by the Amercan public. So instead of using her brilliance and education to do some real good, she's out there looking nice and pretty. I know Michelle Obama probably hates it. She has to, she's a freakin' Attorney from Harvard Law School. I guess she knows that this is what it's going to take for her husband to get re-elected, and if and when he does, Michelle Obama will finally be her own person and do what she's capable of.