The Reality Check

The most recent AP-Gfk poll showed a downturn in Obama's approval ratings since his election, after which he had some of the highest approval numbers in presidential history. Of course the news outlets and pundits talk about it as if it's a surprise and as if the Obama administration should be alarmed.

The reality is that the Obama administration not only new that his approval ratings were going to dip, but they were already planning for it immediately after his election. Obama, even in his early speeches, was starting to hedge and set people's expectations for the first term of his Presidency pretty low. He knew that the euphoria of his historic elections would eventually fade into the reality of our current economic situation. Obama never promised he would turn the economy around in his Presidency.

In fact, he did say that it would take more than 4 years for his policies to set in and make a difference. This is a true statement, but he conveniently didn't mention it until he was elected. It was a political calculation. Had Obama said this sobering but true statement before he was elected, it wouldn't have help the momentum that was created by an economic downturn under a Republican President, as well as the hope and optimism Obama was engenduring on the campaign trail. Now that he's elected, he needs to set expectations low so that he can say, "I told you so" or he could exceed his own low expectations. There's really no downside political downside to him saying this.

President Obama's approval ratings are going down, but he expected it. Not only that, he's taking the hit on purpose for some of it to make some of his base happy and keep them in his back pocket for the next elections...but that's for another post.