The Reality Check

President Obama has to use a very different strategy in the next presidential election cycle. President Obama won based one two things: his charisma and the economy. Those two things overcame what I think was an obstacle, his race.

Although Obama's campaign used the race card effectively for his favor, I believe it was more of a liability than an asset, and it's going to be an even more liability this next time around. It was more of a liability because although any trace of racism is erased from the media and although it has become a huge cultural taboo to maintain any racist tendencies, it still exists in America. Ask anyone of a different race that has lived for any length of time in a rural area, where most Americans still live, or the South. They will testify that racism still exists and is still a strong presence in these parts of the US.

There were a couple of reasons Barack Obama was able to overcome this still very present obstacle in the last elections. One, him being the first potential African-American president and the optimism and hope he was very effectively able to engender motivated and inspired many young Americans and many African-Americans who would not have normally gone to the polls.

Secondly, the downward spiral of the economy was a huge win for Obama. Of course he nor his campaign will ever admit it, but that might have been the knock out blow for McCain. As many have said before, "it's the economy stupid." People are more concerned about the economy and their jobs than they are about race. There were many Americans who may have had racist tendencies who voted for Obama because they thought he would be better for the economy.

Culturally speaking, it was a huge victory to have the first African-American president. It was inspiring and a genuinely joyous time. I believe that momentary sense of bliss is giving way to reality.

President Obama is facing many obstacles that he and his campaign will need to figure out how to overcome in the next election cycle. These are challenges that are both inevitable as a candidate up for re-election, but some of these challenges were created by the Obama campaign itself. In other words, the very things that got Obama elected will now be the very things that may keep him from getting re-elected.

The race issue will still be there in 2012. I still believe it's more of a liability than an asset, and it will be even more of a liability in 2012. What remains to be seen is if Obama's charisma and the economy issue will help him overcome it.

First, Obama's charisma. The hope of a promise is always more exhilarating and inspiring than reality. This will be one of President Obama's self-inflicted challenges. Candidate Obama set such high expectations and such high hopes during his campaign that it is virtually impossible to attain. Of course, everyone was thinking short-term, get him elected for the first term. But in doing so, they set themselves up for a huge potential failure in the second term elections.

Secondly, candidate Obama promised to fix the economy. Okay, he didn't verbatim promise he would fix it, but that is what was implied and that is what people will remember they heard and understood from him. Economy is always issue number 1, especially if it's not going well. If people voted for him because they thought he could fix the economy, Obama will almost surely lose those votes this next time around. Although the economy is stabilizing, it has a long way to go to make up for all the jobs that have been lost in the last several months. President Obama won't be able to ride to coat-tails of the economy on this next election cycle.

In addition, President Obama's race card will lose it's luster. We've had our first African American president and now the novelty is gone. Also, if the Republicans are able to get a minority through the primaries to become nominated, Obama's race card will be even more diminished, especially if the GOP nominates someone who is 100% a different race. People seem to forget that President Obama is only half African-American. For the record, I'm not saying that the Obama campaign overtly used the race card. Technically they didn't, but it was still a huge factor and no one can deny that.

One last potential obstacle that may or may not happen is President Obama's relationship with the African-American community. Although Obama's black, he was raised by white people and went to predominately white schools. I wonder if his non-blackness will eventually come out.

Additionally, the African-American church community still needs to reconcile itself to the abortion issue. Assuming that most African-American churches are pro-life, which I think they are, and the fact that most of the overwhelmingly supported Obama, they'll have to reconcile the logic of that decision. Almost a million babies are aborted in the US every year. If life begins at conception, as most Evangelicals believe, than they are also saying that abortion is a biggest act of genocide in the history of mankind. If African-American churches believe that life begins at conception, they just voted in someone who supports this genocide. 87% of African-Americans voted for Barack Obama. If and when they come to grips with this abortion issue and the fact that a disproportionate number of these abortions happen in African-American communities, I wonder how many of those African-American votes will still go to Obama next time around.