The Reality Check

No one argues that getting the two American journalists out of North Korea was a good thing. North Korea is not known for their just justice system nor their humane treatment of anyone, let alone prisoners. In any case, I'm glad the two journalists made it out, regardless of how they got out. But there will be political consequences just like any other move, subtle or overt, in the world of foreign relations. There was a political cost to the Obama Administration and many say, to the US in general, but still, Clinton wins again.

So how will the Obama Administration move forward in the light of this? Well, let me first spell out what the Clinton visit did politically, and then the options that President Obama now has in light of that.

First of all, Former President Clinton's visit was not purely humanitarian and was not purely a private, isolated mission. It can't be. He's a former President that was intimately involved in the North Korea crisis. If Former President Clinton's visit was purely a private humanitarian mission that was completely separate from the Nuclear issue, he would not have been asked to come by the North Koreans.

Clinton's visit was not insignificant. Kim Jong Il got what he has wanted since he came into power, legitimacy. He's been desperate for the affirmation and acknowledgment of the world of the legitimacy of his administration and has sought for it with nuclear arms. In this journalist crisis, he got what he has always been after. In exchange for the two journalists, Kim Jong Il was legitimized by a popular former President in front of the watching eyes of the world and his own country. He gave up two pawns and got a firmer grip on power in exchange.

Ok, so what does President Obama do now? He has a couple of general directions he could go. The New York Times and other media outlets are already crediting President Clinton for opening up a diplomatic dialogue. So now, if the Obama Administration decide to open up unilateral diplomatic talks, which would be a huge, not insignificant step, then President Clinton will get the credit, not President Obama. If President Obama continues using sanctions and the six-party talks as his sole diplomatic channel, he just continues what President Bush did, and may get the same result. He's in a bit of a jam.

Regardless of what President Obama now does, and no matter how much both President Obama and Former President Clinton denies this, Former President Clinton will surely get the credit and glory for any successes with North Korea. And unfortunately for President Obama, he will be blamed for any failures or lack of changes in progress.

It seems like Former President Clinton wins again. He's a political genius for sure and knows exactly how to line up his political chess pieces, but this time, I don't think he even tried. The thing about Former Presidents is that they can't ever fail as Former Presidents. Not only does history remember President Clinton's time as President well, he will surely outshine even President Carter in his legacy as Former President.